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The PVC market adjustment pressures

This week PVC in North China market for continued in the upturn, due to the emergence of signs of improvement in demand in some downstream enterprises,thus pushing prices continue to increase, because some traders exist seal plate signs, so for market participants for the market outlook confidence boost, despite the large fall weekend crude oil have a certain impact on the market, but the overall market changes. Up to now, the market of calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream quotation is concentrated in the 8050-8100 yuan / ton,ethylene act PVC mainstream quotation at 8350-8550 yuan / ton. This week in East China PVC market due to upstream inventory is not as well as the impact ofexport growth, market shortage more obvious signs, most businesses inquirymore positive, but the transaction is not much. The downstream aspects of themarket outlook is still mainly wait-and-see, overall demand did not show signs of improvement, the overall market is confused about the market outlook. Up to now, the market of calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream quotation is concentrated in the 8150-8180 yuan / ton, ethylene act PVC mainstreamquotation at 8500-8600 yuan / ton. This week Southern China area PVC market once by commodity market driven by strong early next week rebounce pattern,but because the downstream enterprises receiving more negative effects, andfinancial aspects of the interest rate is expected later in the week, companies began to significantly to wait, goods intention to reduce greatly, make the market rally force, Chonggao down. Up to now, the market of calcium carbide method 5type in mainstream quotation 8200-8250 yuan / ton, ethylene act PVC mainstream quotation is still in the 8500-8650 yuan / ton.

Influence factors analysis and prediction of (1) the macro aspects: some recentarea power rationing policy is about to be released, a hand that enter the summer electricity shortage comes greater pressure, will bring a certain impacton electricity production for industrial use, on the other hand, for the upstreamcarbide industry in PVC, as a high energy consuming production (2) upstream:this week the calcium carbide prices to maintain concussion rising trend, thedecrease of raw materials upstream production enterprises receiving more difficult lead to the overall market appears to continue to rise to the presentsituation, the main producing areas in the northwest of the quotation in the 3800yuan / ton. Ethylene price by part of the enterprise maintenance effect of supply,resulting in high prices continued to firm, the current CFR Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia stability above the $1350. Industry in the future may continue to be regulated, the impact of supply and demand in the cost of the center of gravity will gradually increase. (3) the demand side: the downstream aspects of the current some signs of recovery, especially in North China area most pipe and film companies operating rebounded significantly, but the needs of Southern China area did not appear to improve, the majority of enterprises mainly wait-and-see, overall, the demand still is in a slow recovery pattern. To sum up, is expected to cost the support situation, even if the market next week in the fundamentals of the weak situation facing the adjustment, but the space is very limited, is expected around the market may in 8100 yuan main shock.

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